The least successful franchise against preseason win-loss over/under is AFC North of Pittsburgh and former AFC Central Division rival Cleveland. The Cleveland Browns have beaten their preseason more or less nine times in 31 playing seasons since 1989 – no other team in the league has posted such a low mark.
The worst season against a preseason win-loss total over/under was achieved by the Houston Texans in 2013. This Texas team notably started the year with a pair of wins before dropping 14 straight games to close the season, ultimately finishing 2-14 and eight shy of their 10-over/under line. The high preseason outlook came after Houston had just won back-to-back AFC South titles and was coming off a franchise-best 12-4 season.
Ultimately, the pre-season over/under for wins appears largely conservative in its projections. Franchises that have had consistent success everywhere, like Pittsburgh, Green Bay and New England, have generally beaten their over/unders. Meanwhile, underperforming teams struggle to beat their over/under. It makes sense; Bettors are less inclined to set bold over/under wins/losses and instead middle lines that represent the inclinations of the average bettor.
This story originally appeared on OddsSeeker and was produced and distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.
